The Middle East and Africa (MEA) mobile shipments declined by seven per cent year on year (YoY) in the first quarter (Q1) 2026, marking the region’s first quarter of decline after a strong 2025, according to Counterpoint’s latest Market Monitor.
The decline was due to increaasing prices stemming from the memory crisis, as well as the regional conflict in the Middle East which led to skyrocketing shipping prices, and weakened market performance in several countries.
Although the overall market is declining, the smartphone premiumization trend can still be seen across the MEA, with increasing 5G smartphone adoption. This is particularly prevalent in the region’s emerging markets due to the expanding 5G coverage and strategic 2G and 3G sunset plans across several countries in the near future. These factors have driven a 42% YoY surge in 5G shipments in the MEA.
Moreover, AI-capable smartphones have seen a significant 64% YoY growth in Q1 2026. However, most of this growth is still happening at the higher end of the market, i.e. the $400 and above price range, meaning the premium segment continues to capture the bulk of the AI impact in the region.
The region’s Q1 2026 performance came in below earlier expectations, with the surging memory prices being the primary headwind. Furthermore, the escalating conflict in the Middle East began to weigh heavily on the regional markets toward the end of March. These factors are poised to weigh more heavily in Q2 2026 and the second half of the year.
On the macro side, rising layoffs and corporate downsizing are pushing unemployment higher in the GCC’s premium markets, while spikes in fuel and logistics prices are adding another layer of cost on consumer goods prices across the region. The factors, compounded, are leading to a net effect: a significant squeeze in purchasing power throughout the region. More critically, uncertainty is reshaping the market performance, particularly across emerging markets. Purchases now are now being driven more by need than premiumization or upgrades.
The decline in the overall smartphone market stemmed mostly from the 41% YoY fall in the entry-tier ($50-$99) price band as it was the most exposed to regional conflicts and the memory crisis-related price changes. The higher price bands are also expected to start seeing declines in Q2 2026, hurt by the ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic difficulties, and compounded by the lack of sales-driving occasions in the region.
Insights on key brands during Q4 2025
Samsung maintained its leadership position in terms of market share, with a remarkable 19% YoY growth supported by the relatively more stable prices and stronger inventories, complimented by its wider premium portfolio that limit the brand’s exposure to the memory crisis. The launch of the new premium S26 lineup also contributed to Samsung’s performance.
Chinese OEMs like Transsion and Xiaomi remain the region’s most affected brands, leaving their retail shelves empty in some cases, particularly in the Middle East. Meanwhile, Africa is considered the primary market for brands like TECNO and itel.
HONOR recorded notable growth in the region, surging 154% YoY in Q4 2025, although the brand had a small base in terms of volume last year. However, HONOR’s strategy to build up the brand in the region’s premium markets is paying off, strengthening its position among the premium audience more than the mass market.
The comprehensive and in-depth ‘Q4 2025 Market Monitor Smartphone Tracker’ is available for subscribing clients.
