By Ajibola Akindele
Every serious conversation about Africa’s future eventually arrives at the same point. Energy. Whether the subject is industrial growth, digital infrastructure, healthcare systems, or modern cities, progress ultimately depends on one variable: the availability, reliability, and efficiency of power. Across West Africa, that reality has become increasingly impossible to ignore.
After 30 years across the continent, this is no longer an observation. It has become a consistent reality.
The region’s ambition is not in question. The African Continental Free Trade Area is reshaping trade flows and encouraging local production over imports. Manufacturing intent is rising. Digital investment is accelerating. A new generation of entrepreneurs is building at remarkable speed. Yet beneath all of this progress sits a structural constraint that has not evolved at the same pace. The energy system.
Nearly 600 million people across Africa still lack access to electricity, according to World Bank energy access data. Nigeria alone accounts for over 80 million of that figure, making it one of the largest single energy access gaps globally. At the same time, West Africa continues to experience some of the lowest electrification and reliability levels in the world, with millions still facing inconsistent or insufficient supply even when connections exist.
This is not simply an infrastructure gap. It is a productivity ceiling.
Energy is the foundation of every form of scaling, from urbanisation to industrialisation to digital transformation and artificial intelligence adoption. That principle is no longer theoretical. It is operational reality.
Jean Pascal Tricoire, Chairman of Schneider Electric, captured it clearly when he stated that energy is the foundation of every form of scaling across modern economies.
The gap between ambition and capacity is also financial. Achieving Africa’s energy and access goals by 2030 is estimated to require around $200 billion annually. Current investment levels sit closer to $110 billion. The difference is not just a funding shortfall. It is a strategic gap that shapes every downstream development outcome.
Two Forces, One Foundation
Two forces are now intensifying this pressure across West Africa.
The first is the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure. Global data centre electricity demand rose by about 17% in 2025, driven largely by AI workloads and cloud computing growth. This shift is redefining what digital economies require. Far from being low energy, the digital transition is becoming one of the most power intensive economic shifts in modern history. In Nigeria, data centre capacity is already estimated at over 130 megawatts, yet operators continue to depend heavily on alternative power sources due to grid instability.
The second force is industrial localisation. The African Continental Free Trade Area could increase Africa’s GDP by more than $500 billion by 2043 and significantly expand manufacturing output if implementation continues effectively. Nigeria and its regional peers are increasingly positioning themselves as production hubs rather than import dependent markets. Yet this ambition collides with operational reality. In Nigeria, a large share of manufacturers still rely on self generation through diesel powered systems due to unreliable grid supply. Industry estimates suggest energy related costs and inefficiencies cost the economy tens of billions of dollars annually in lost productivity and competitiveness.
These two forces, digital acceleration and industrial expansion, are not separate narratives. They are converging on the same constraint.
The Model That Scales
What makes West Africa particularly important in this transition is not just its challenges, but its emerging model of adaptation.
Across the region, a significant share of industrial and energy solutions is being delivered through small and medium enterprises. In Schneider Electric’s African operations, around 70% of activity is executed through SME partners who adapt global technologies into locally relevant applications. This includes control systems, digital energy management, and industrial automation solutions tailored to environments where infrastructure is still evolving.
This model matters because it reflects a deeper truth about scale in Africa. Progress is not only driven by large flagship projects. It is increasingly driven by distributed capability, local technical expertise, and entrepreneurial adaptation. International technology provides the foundation. Local enterprises determine how far and how fast it scales.
This is already visible in Nigeria and across West Africa, where energy solutions are increasingly being embedded into industrial design rather than treated as external support systems. The implication is clear. West Africa’s industrial future will not be determined by energy availability alone, but by how intelligently energy is integrated into production systems.
Energy Must Become Industrial Policy
The most important shift required now is conceptual. Energy policy and industrial policy can no longer operate as separate domains. In most West African economies today, they are still designed and executed independently. One governs infrastructure investment. The other governs production targets. The connection between them is often assumed rather than engineered.
Yet manufacturing competitiveness depends on that connection being explicit. Energy efficiency at the equipment level, especially in motors and industrial systems, often determines whether local producers can compete with global imports. Without addressing efficiency, even increased generation capacity will not close the competitiveness gap.
Nigeria’s industrial trajectory makes this particularly clear. Manufacturing currently contributes a relatively modest share of 12% GDP compared to global industrial economies, while energy instability continues to constrain expansion. At the same time, industrial demand is rising as policy increasingly supports local production and import substitution.
The countries that resolve this alignment first will define the next phase of industrial growth in the region.
West Africa does not lack ambition. It does not lack talent. It does not lack entrepreneurial capacity. What it requires now is alignment between the systems that generate power and the systems that generate productivity.
Energy is not simply infrastructure. It is the enabling condition for every serious growth strategy on the continent. The opportunity ahead is not only to expand capacity, but to integrate it intelligently into how economies actually produce, scale, and compete.
The future of West African industry will not be decided by ambition alone. It will be decided by how effectively energy becomes part of the industrial design itself.
Akindele is Country President, Schneider Electric, Anglophone Africa.
